Winning News Trading Strategy

Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Swaps* (*But Were Afraid To Ask)

Hello, dummies
It's your old pal, Fuzzy.
As I'm sure you've all noticed, a lot of the stuff that gets posted here is - to put it delicately - fucking ridiculous. More backwards-ass shit gets posted to wallstreetbets than you'd see on a Westboro Baptist community message board. I mean, I had a look at the daily thread yesterday and..... yeesh. I know, I know. We all make like the divine Laura Dern circa 1992 on the daily and stick our hands deep into this steaming heap of shit to find the nuggets of valuable and/or hilarious information within (thanks for reading, BTW). I agree. I love it just the way it is too. That's what makes WSB great.
What I'm getting at is that a lot of the stuff that gets posted here - notwithstanding it being funny or interesting - is just... wrong. Like, fucking your cousin wrong. And to be clear, I mean the fucking your *first* cousin kinda wrong, before my Southerners in the back get all het up (simmer down, Billy Ray - I know Mabel's twice removed on your grand-sister's side). Truly, I try to let it slide. I do my bit to try and put you on the right path. Most of the time, I sleep easy no matter how badly I've seen someone explain what a bank liquidity crisis is. But out of all of those tens of thousands of misguided, autistic attempts at understanding the world of high finance, one thing gets so consistently - so *emphatically* - fucked up and misunderstood by you retards that last night I felt obligated at the end of a long work day to pull together this edition of Finance with Fuzzy just for you. It's so serious I'm not even going to make a u/pokimane gag. Have you guessed what it is yet? Here's a clue. It's in the title of the post.
That's right, friends. Today in the neighborhood we're going to talk all about hedging in financial markets - spots, swaps, collars, forwards, CDS, synthetic CDOs, all that fun shit. Don't worry; I'm going to explain what all the scary words mean and how they impact your OTM RH positions along the way.
We're going to break it down like this. (1) "What's a hedge, Fuzzy?" (2) Common Hedging Strategies and (3) All About ISDAs and Credit Default Swaps.
Before we begin. For the nerds and JV traders in the back (and anyone else who needs to hear this up front) - I am simplifying these descriptions for the purposes of this post. I am also obviously not going to try and cover every exotic form of hedge under the sun or give a detailed summation of what caused the financial crisis. If you are interested in something specific ask a question, but don't try and impress me with your Investopedia skills or technical points I didn't cover; I will just be forced to flex my years of IRL experience on you in the comments and you'll look like a big dummy.
TL;DR? Fuck you. There is no TL;DR. You've come this far already. What's a few more paragraphs? Put down the Cheetos and try to concentrate for the next 5-7 minutes. You'll learn something, and I promise I'll be gentle.
Ready? Let's get started.
1. The Tao of Risk: Hedging as a Way of Life
The simplest way to characterize what a hedge 'is' is to imagine every action having a binary outcome. One is bad, one is good. Red lines, green lines; uppie, downie. With me so far? Good. A 'hedge' is simply the employment of a strategy to mitigate the effect of your action having the wrong binary outcome. You wanted X, but you got Z! Frowny face. A hedge strategy introduces a third outcome. If you hedged against the possibility of Z happening, then you can wind up with Y instead. Not as good as X, but not as bad as Z. The technical definition I like to give my idiot juniors is as follows:
Utilization of a defensive strategy to mitigate risk, at a fraction of the cost to capital of the risk itself.
Congratulations. You just finished Hedging 101. "But Fuzzy, that's easy! I just sold a naked call against my 95% OTM put! I'm adequately hedged!". Spoiler alert: you're not (although good work on executing a collar, which I describe below). What I'm talking about here is what would be referred to as a 'perfect hedge'; a binary outcome where downside is totally mitigated by a risk management strategy. That's not how it works IRL. Pay attention; this is the tricky part.
You can't take a single position and conclude that you're adequately hedged because risks are fluid, not static. So you need to constantly adjust your position in order to maximize the value of the hedge and insure your position. You also need to consider exposure to more than one category of risk. There are micro (specific exposure) risks, and macro (trend exposure) risks, and both need to factor into the hedge calculus.
That's why, in the real world, the value of hedging depends entirely on the design of the hedging strategy itself. Here, when we say "value" of the hedge, we're not talking about cash money - we're talking about the intrinsic value of the hedge relative to the the risk profile of your underlying exposure. To achieve this, people hedge dynamically. In wallstreetbets terms, this means that as the value of your position changes, you need to change your hedges too. The idea is to efficiently and continuously distribute and rebalance risk across different states and periods, taking value from states in which the marginal cost of the hedge is low and putting it back into states where marginal cost of the hedge is high, until the shadow value of your underlying exposure is equalized across your positions. The punchline, I guess, is that one static position is a hedge in the same way that the finger paintings you make for your wife's boyfriend are art - it's technically correct, but you're only playing yourself by believing it.
Anyway. Obviously doing this as a small potatoes trader is hard but it's worth taking into account. Enough basic shit. So how does this work in markets?
2. A Hedging Taxonomy
The best place to start here is a practical question. What does a business need to hedge against? Think about the specific risk that an individual business faces. These are legion, so I'm just going to list a few of the key ones that apply to most corporates. (1) You have commodity risk for the shit you buy or the shit you use. (2) You have currency risk for the money you borrow. (3) You have rate risk on the debt you carry. (4) You have offtake risk for the shit you sell. Complicated, right? To help address the many and varied ways that shit can go wrong in a sophisticated market, smart operators like yours truly have devised a whole bundle of different instruments which can help you manage the risk. I might write about some of the more complicated ones in a later post if people are interested (CDO/CLOs, strip/stack hedges and bond swaps with option toggles come to mind) but let's stick to the basics for now.
(i) Swaps
A swap is one of the most common forms of hedge instrument, and they're used by pretty much everyone that can afford them. The language is complicated but the concept isn't, so pay attention and you'll be fine. This is the most important part of this section so it'll be the longest one.
Swaps are derivative contracts with two counterparties (before you ask, you can't trade 'em on an exchange - they're OTC instruments only). They're used to exchange one cash flow for another cash flow of equal expected value; doing this allows you to take speculative positions on certain financial prices or to alter the cash flows of existing assets or liabilities within a business. "Wait, Fuzz; slow down! What do you mean sets of cash flows?". Fear not, little autist. Ol' Fuzz has you covered.
The cash flows I'm talking about are referred to in swap-land as 'legs'. One leg is fixed - a set payment that's the same every time it gets paid - and the other is variable - it fluctuates (typically indexed off the price of the underlying risk that you are speculating on / protecting against). You set it up at the start so that they're notionally equal and the two legs net off; so at open, the swap is a zero NPV instrument. Here's where the fun starts. If the price that you based the variable leg of the swap on changes, the value of the swap will shift; the party on the wrong side of the move ponies up via the variable payment. It's a zero sum game.
I'll give you an example using the most vanilla swap around; an interest rate trade. Here's how it works. You borrow money from a bank, and they charge you a rate of interest. You lock the rate up front, because you're smart like that. But then - quelle surprise! - the rate gets better after you borrow. Now you're bagholding to the tune of, I don't know, 5 bps. Doesn't sound like much but on a billion dollar loan that's a lot of money (a classic example of the kind of 'small, deep hole' that's terrible for profits). Now, if you had a swap contract on the rate before you entered the trade, you're set; if the rate goes down, you get a payment under the swap. If it goes up, whatever payment you're making to the bank is netted off by the fact that you're borrowing at a sub-market rate. Win-win! Or, at least, Lose Less / Lose Less. That's the name of the game in hedging.
There are many different kinds of swaps, some of which are pretty exotic; but they're all different variations on the same theme. If your business has exposure to something which fluctuates in price, you trade swaps to hedge against the fluctuation. The valuation of swaps is also super interesting but I guarantee you that 99% of you won't understand it so I'm not going to try and explain it here although I encourage you to google it if you're interested.
Because they're OTC, none of them are filed publicly. Someeeeeetimes you see an ISDA (dsicussed below) but the confirms themselves (the individual swaps) are not filed. You can usually read about the hedging strategy in a 10-K, though. For what it's worth, most modern credit agreements ban speculative hedging. Top tip: This is occasionally something worth checking in credit agreements when you invest in businesses that are debt issuers - being able to do this increases the risk profile significantly and is particularly important in times of economic volatility (ctrl+f "non-speculative" in the credit agreement to be sure).
(ii) Forwards
A forward is a contract made today for the future delivery of an asset at a pre-agreed price. That's it. "But Fuzzy! That sounds just like a futures contract!". I know. Confusing, right? Just like a futures trade, forwards are generally used in commodity or forex land to protect against price fluctuations. The differences between forwards and futures are small but significant. I'm not going to go into super boring detail because I don't think many of you are commodities traders but it is still an important thing to understand even if you're just an RH jockey, so stick with me.
Just like swaps, forwards are OTC contracts - they're not publicly traded. This is distinct from futures, which are traded on exchanges (see The Ballad Of Big Dick Vick for some more color on this). In a forward, no money changes hands until the maturity date of the contract when delivery and receipt are carried out; price and quantity are locked in from day 1. As you now know having read about BDV, futures are marked to market daily, and normally people close them out with synthetic settlement using an inverse position. They're also liquid, and that makes them easier to unwind or close out in case shit goes sideways.
People use forwards when they absolutely have to get rid of the thing they made (or take delivery of the thing they need). If you're a miner, or a farmer, you use this shit to make sure that at the end of the production cycle, you can get rid of the shit you made (and you won't get fucked by someone taking cash settlement over delivery). If you're a buyer, you use them to guarantee that you'll get whatever the shit is that you'll need at a price agreed in advance. Because they're OTC, you can also exactly tailor them to the requirements of your particular circumstances.
These contracts are incredibly byzantine (and there are even crazier synthetic forwards you can see in money markets for the true degenerate fund managers). In my experience, only Texan oilfield magnates, commodities traders, and the weirdo forex crowd fuck with them. I (i) do not own a 10 gallon hat or a novelty size belt buckle (ii) do not wake up in the middle of the night freaking out about the price of pork fat and (iii) love greenbacks too much to care about other countries' monopoly money, so I don't fuck with them.
(iii) Collars
No, not the kind your wife is encouraging you to wear try out to 'spice things up' in the bedroom during quarantine. Collars are actually the hedging strategy most applicable to WSB. Collars deal with options! Hooray!
To execute a basic collar (also called a wrapper by tea-drinking Brits and people from the Antipodes), you buy an out of the money put while simultaneously writing a covered call on the same equity. The put protects your position against price drops and writing the call produces income that offsets the put premium. Doing this limits your tendies (you can only profit up to the strike price of the call) but also writes down your risk. If you screen large volume trades with a VOL/OI of more than 3 or 4x (and they're not bullshit biotech stocks), you can sometimes see these being constructed in real time as hedge funds protect themselves on their shorts.
(3) All About ISDAs, CDS and Synthetic CDOs
You may have heard about the mythical ISDA. Much like an indenture (discussed in my post on $F), it's a magic legal machine that lets you build swaps via trade confirms with a willing counterparty. They are very complicated legal documents and you need to be a true expert to fuck with them. Fortunately, I am, so I do. They're made of two parts; a Master (which is a form agreement that's always the same) and a Schedule (which amends the Master to include your specific terms). They are also the engine behind just about every major credit crunch of the last 10+ years.
First - a brief explainer. An ISDA is a not in and of itself a hedge - it's an umbrella contract that governs the terms of your swaps, which you use to construct your hedge position. You can trade commodities, forex, rates, whatever, all under the same ISDA.
Let me explain. Remember when we talked about swaps? Right. So. You can trade swaps on just about anything. In the late 90s and early 2000s, people had the smart idea of using other people's debt and or credit ratings as the variable leg of swap documentation. These are called credit default swaps. I was actually starting out at a bank during this time and, I gotta tell you, the only thing I can compare people's enthusiasm for this shit to was that moment in your early teens when you discover jerking off. Except, unlike your bathroom bound shame sessions to Mom's Sears catalogue, every single person you know felt that way too; and they're all doing it at once. It was a fiscal circlejerk of epic proportions, and the financial crisis was the inevitable bukkake finish. WSB autism is absolutely no comparison for the enthusiasm people had during this time for lighting each other's money on fire.
Here's how it works. You pick a company. Any company. Maybe even your own! And then you write a swap. In the swap, you define "Credit Event" with respect to that company's debt as the variable leg . And you write in... whatever you want. A ratings downgrade, default under the docs, failure to meet a leverage ratio or FCCR for a certain testing period... whatever. Now, this started out as a hedge position, just like we discussed above. The purest of intentions, of course. But then people realized - if bad shit happens, you make money. And banks... don't like calling in loans or forcing bankruptcies. Can you smell what the moral hazard is cooking?
Enter synthetic CDOs. CDOs are basically pools of asset backed securities that invest in debt (loans or bonds). They've been around for a minute but they got famous in the 2000s because a shitload of them containing subprime mortgage debt went belly up in 2008. This got a lot of publicity because a lot of sad looking rednecks got foreclosed on and were interviewed on CNBC. "OH!", the people cried. "Look at those big bad bankers buying up subprime loans! They caused this!". Wrong answer, America. The debt wasn't the problem. What a lot of people don't realize is that the real meat of the problem was not in regular way CDOs investing in bundles of shit mortgage debts in synthetic CDOs investing in CDS predicated on that debt. They're synthetic because they don't have a stake in the actual underlying debt; just the instruments riding on the coattails. The reason these are so popular (and remain so) is that smart structured attorneys and bankers like your faithful correspondent realized that an even more profitable and efficient way of building high yield products with limited downside was investing in instruments that profit from failure of debt and in instruments that rely on that debt and then hedging that exposure with other CDS instruments in paired trades, and on and on up the chain. The problem with doing this was that everyone wound up exposed to everybody else's books as a result, and when one went tits up, everybody did. Hence, recession, Basel III, etc. Thanks, Obama.
Heavy investment in CDS can also have a warping effect on the price of debt (something else that happened during the pre-financial crisis years and is starting to happen again now). This happens in three different ways. (1) Investors who previously were long on the debt hedge their position by selling CDS protection on the underlying, putting downward pressure on the debt price. (2) Investors who previously shorted the debt switch to buying CDS protection because the relatively illiquid debt (partic. when its a bond) trades at a discount below par compared to the CDS. The resulting reduction in short selling puts upward pressure on the bond price. (3) The delta in price and actual value of the debt tempts some investors to become NBTs (neg basis traders) who long the debt and purchase CDS protection. If traders can't take leverage, nothing happens to the price of the debt. If basis traders can take leverage (which is nearly always the case because they're holding a hedged position), they can push up or depress the debt price, goosing swap premiums etc. Anyway. Enough technical details.
I could keep going. This is a fascinating topic that is very poorly understood and explained, mainly because the people that caused it all still work on the street and use the same tactics today (it's also terribly taught at business schools because none of the teachers were actually around to see how this played out live). But it relates to the topic of today's lesson, so I thought I'd include it here.
Work depending, I'll be back next week with a covenant breakdown. Most upvoted ticker gets the post.
*EDIT 1\* In a total blowout, $PLAY won. So it's D&B time next week. Post will drop Monday at market open.
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[uncensored-r/CryptoCurrency] Genesis Vision and why this is one of the most promising projects of 2018 that no one is talking ...

The following post by IAmThe_ParTY is being replicated because some comments within the post(but not the post itself) have been openly removed.
The original post can be found(in censored form) at this link:
np.reddit.com/ CryptoCurrency/comments/7ra59m
The original post's content was as follows:
Genesis Vision, the platform with a spectacular team and advisory board, low coin supply, entering a market valued over 70 trillion dollars adding full transparency for investors!
Current price: $ 21.14 USD Market cap: $ 78 million USD Circulating supply: 3.7 million GVT Total supply: 4.4 million GVT
Exchanges:
Binance Kucoin HitBTC Ether delta
More being added soon
Basic information (1) Genesis Vision is going after an industry that has never been transparent; asset/trust management. Traditional trust management systems are a black box to potential investors. In any event, investors transfer money to a financial manager and then wait to receive profits. They receive a statistic on the use of their assets and the financial manager's performance, but investors have essentially no way to verify this information. Too often, the real situation is understood when the money can no longer be returned. A large number of fraudulent conducts in the trust management market was detected in recent years.
(2) The natural reaction for this situation was tightening the regulations in this sphere. This leads to serious limitations on the potential of market participants and lack of usability. However the global asset market is growing, the amount of funds in management was more than 71 trillion dollars in 2015.
(3) Genesis Vision is a platform (GVP) for the private trust management market, built on blockchain technology and smart contracts. It unites exchanges, brokers, traders, and investors into a decentralized network, making the financial market more global and transparent. They believe that implementation of blockchain will allow the trust management market to achieve transparency and efficiency on the technological level.
In the trust management there are three participants in the market:
  • The Investor, transfers funds to experienced traders who manage their funds.
  • The Manager, a trader or company who trades for investors. They receive a commision from the profit.
  • The Brokers, companies that have the appropriate licenses to carry out brokerage activities. Through brokers, traders have access to trading financial instruments on exchange and over-the-counter markets.
The GVP works as follows; Each manager in the Genesis Vision network has his own cryptocurrency. The process of transferring funds to the manager is carried out by buying a manager's cryptocurrency on the internal exchange. From the manager’s point of view, the trade process will not change. The trader will continue to operate on the exchange or through a broker. Genesis Vision, in turn, represents a common open source of reliable information about the statistics of the network participants' activities and a transparent system of investment and profit distribution, built on smart contracts.
Some advantages for Investors: Investors have access to managers from all over the world; Profit distribution is completely transparent and open; There is better availability of investment portfolios(high-risk, low-risk, etc.); All managers have a real trading history that cannot be faked.
Some advantages for managers: Attract investors from any country; Transparency and fairness of report construction guarantees fair competition between all managers; There is increased investor confidence; Opportunities for promoting your own trading strategy to attract more investors; Managers issue their own branded cryptocurrency.
Some advantages for brokers: Brokers have an opportunity to attract investors from all over the world; Brokers have the right to do any marketing; The system does not require any information about the broker's client base.
Use of Genesis Vision Token (GVT) GVT is a currency of the Genesis Vision Platform and will be used for all investment operations and profit distributions. The platform is the place where investors can purchase and sell managers’ coins. Managers have a limited amount of coins, which depends on their level. Initially, these coins can only be purchased directly from the manager for a fixed price. Afterwards, they can be freely traded among the investors on the internal exchange. In this case, investors determine the price based on supply and demand.
The cost of these coins will depend on the success of a manager’s trading because the manager’s profitable trading makes his/her coins "profitable." So investors want to get a higher price for the coin. This method has several advantages over the traditional scheme of transferring money to a manager’s account: The manager's coin itself is an asset; At any time, the investor can transfesell this cryptocurrency on the internal exchange; The user buys “tangible” coins and can be cashed at any time. When investors purchase coins, GVTs are transferred to a broker's account, where they are converted to required currency and transferred to a manager's trading account. Coin holders receive part of the manager's profits, according to their share, minus the manager's commission and fee. The GVT will be used for all investment operations, profit distributions, and managers’ token trading on the internal exchange.
Token distribution 40%: Development, Support; 30%: Marketing; 15%: Integration, servers, connectivity, auditing; 10%: Legal 5%: Other.
Connecting a Broker The owner of the trading platform needs to install the Genesis Vision software, which is free and distributed with an open license.
Company, Team & Investors The project started on November 20, 2016, when Ruslan Kamenskiy and Dmitry Nazarov won the HackRussia hackathon in the nomination “Finance and Blockchain” with the Genesis Vision project.
At the beginning of 2017, Alexey Kutsenko, CEO of Tools For Brokers joined the team. His fintech company has been operating on the market for eight years and has more than 300 brokers as clients. Alexey helps elaborate strategy for entering the market and manages details of Genesis Vision’s trust management solution.
(4) In total, the project has 10 team members and 14 advisors.
CEO: Ruslan Kamenskiy, 7+ years financial software developer. He developed a trading system for the stock exchange “Saint Petersburg”, was head of the software department of a financial broker company, and implemented HFT strategies for the hedge fund.
(5) CTO: Dmitry Nazarov, 6+ years software developer in international financial organizations, among them are a brokerage company, a stock exchange, and an UK-based foreign exchange company.
(6)Technical lead: Casimir Compaore, 10+ years of development experience, especially in the field of data science. He worked as an Information Technology Officer at African Union Commission and has experience in ASP.NET, Agile/Lean development and is a Microsoft Certified Professional Developer.
(7)Partnerships Tools for Brokers Inc, develops technological solutions for Forex brokers operating on the stock and currency markets since 2009. (8)
Roadmap (1) - 2018 M4: Genesis Vision Alpha finished: Blockchain platform, Integration MetaTrader 4, Client App Alpha, Marketing for attracting partners’ brokers - 2018 M5: Integration MetaTrader 5 - 2018 M7: Integration Fix/Fast - 2018 M9: Genesis Vision Beta finished: Blockchain platform, Integration Crypto Exchange, Client App web - 2018 M11: Client App Mobile Beta - 2019 M1: Genesis Vision V 1.0: Blockchain platform, Stock exchange integration, Mobile and web app, Campaign to attract brokers. - 2019 M2: Campaign to attract managers and investors. - 2019 M7: Client app backoffice for brokers - 2020 M1: Genesis Vision V2.0: Blockchain platform, Bank integration, Mobile and web app
Sources (1): https://genesis.vision/white-paper-eng.pdf (2): http://www.financemagnates.com/forex/regulation/30-million-forex-ponzi-scheme-unveiled/ (3): http://www.agefi.fsites/agefi.ffiles/fichiers/2016/07/bcg-doubling-down-on-data-july-2016_tcm80-2113701.pdf (4): https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexey-kutsenko-59237b78/ (5): https://www.linkedin.com/in/ruslan-kamenskiy/ (6): https://www.linkedin.com/in/dmitry-nazarov-01b382105/ (7): https://www.linkedin.com/in/casimircompaore/ (8): http://www.t4b.com/
Source: Wolfpack research group
Edit: community built website for added information
GVT community
submitted by censorship_notifier to noncensored_bitcoin [link] [comments]

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